What effect will Trump have on tourism?

Unless you’ve been living under a rock for some months, you’d be aware that the upcoming 45th President of the United States is one of the most controversial ‘politicians’ ever.

He has strongly signaled a retreat from globalism, on everything from building a wall between the US and Mexico to banning Muslims, and a desire to backtrack on embracing Cuba. Simply his position as President elect putting off many prospective visitors to the US will inevitably significantly affect the tourism industry. 
 
Recent World Travel Market research revealed before the US presidential election that 60% of travel industry professionals from around the world surveyed believed that Clinton would be good for the travel industry, and just 7% supported ex-reality tv star Trump. This is despite Trump’s considerable experience as a hotelier and businessman: he owns a number of leisure and hospitality businesses around the world, including 15 Trump hotels, spas, golf courses and luxury lodges.

«Travel to the US while you’re still allowed to!»

Some in the travel world have been brazen about their concerns of Trump as President: for example, on election day airline Royal Jordanian tweeted an advertisement for its fares saying: «Just in case he wins... travel to the US while you’re still allowed to!»
 
The day after the election, travel research company Skift founder Rafat Ali tweeted that the industry was “gobsmacked.”
 
Of UK holidaymakers polled during the WTM research, 17% would like to sit next to Clinton on a plane - and just 3% for the orange-skinned ball of controversy. 
 
The recent political turn of events much be a concern for Brand USA which currently enjoys the fact that more money is spent in the US by international travellers than anywhere else in the world. It is aiming for 100 million tourists to the US by 2021, up from 70 million in 2013. Trump policies making border entry harder or more expensive, or which scrutinises particular groups or creates a perception of unwelcomeness will invariably affect visitor numbers considerably.

A weak dollar could hurt outbound tourism

Trump’s ideas of opening the US to the world contrast greatly from Obama, who was recently  in Beijing with China’s President Ki to sign an agreement declaring 2016 as the US-China Tourism Year and launching a number of tourism-related initiatives between the two countries. 
 
However, if Trump’s policies discourage visitors and lower the strength of the dollar, this will benefit tourists: everyone from airlines, hotels and car rental agencies would be likely to drop prices, and currency exchange will be more favourable. 
 
On the other hand, a weak dollar could hurt outbound tourism, especially considering that travel is a discertionary choice. Yet conversely if higher earners enjoy tax cuts under Trump, they’re likely to travel more.
 
There’s lots of possibilities hanging in the air at the moment. What’s for sure, though, is that the travel industry is in for a bumpy ride...